This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week considering it is a smaller card and begins at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $25k prize, and then I will likely have a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a great quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t think there are any money locks this week, so I wanted to bring a cash strategy I use a great deal of the time, which is punting in money and accepting a loss. I don’t believe Roxy gets the win here, but she’s only $6.9k and that I think she receives 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring which accompanies this and punting along with her cheap price allows us to fit in more of those higher favorites with our other five spots. We don’t want 6 wins in money games, so I don’t believe we will need to even try for it. I like playing money games safer and if I can lock in 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally okay with that. I look for 4 wins in cash and over 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everyone else make the errors and only shoot for a score which may conquer 50% or more of this field.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my opinion and I like Overeem among my best plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be amazed to see this go all 5 rounds. I also believe Overeem will be too fast for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels before him in the striking game. The only shot Oleinik has of winning on the feet is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Besides those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the feet. I also believe Overeem will work his way back to his feet if he is removed and the more Oleinik shoots for takedowns the quicker he will gas out. I enjoy the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I believe he gets a finish in round 1 or 2. That should provide us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We receive Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he’s favored to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw out of this kid and that I concur with all the line motion. I really do think he gets the win , but it is the DK worth that we want to make certain to get exposure to this weekend. I believe he’s a great play cash games with the present price and that I expect to be obese on him GPPs as well. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a favorite as one of these“underdogs“ I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week for her $9.3k price label. I really do think she gets the win here since I mentioned previously, I just don’t see how she can pay off that salary without a finish. I really don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this match, and I don’t wish to rely on her getting knockdown points either. Thus, we are only likely to be receiving 0.5 points per significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus when she wins a choice. If this is the case, we would want her to property over 126 sig strikes just to get more than 10x value. I don’t see that being true and I think she likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision triumph. At her salary, that won’t win anybody the large $25k. That is the prize I’m shooting so that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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